Ayouba KELIMAAyouba KELIMAmars 19, 2018
Flowers_of_sugar_cane.jpg

5min2440
  1. major producing countries and production levels

Sugar is produced from sugar cane or beet. A distinction is made between brown sugar (Free On Bord side on the New York market) and white sugar (Free On Bord side on the London market). There are more than 130 sugar producing countries in the world. However, 10 countries account for about 78% of world production, including Brazil (23%), India (15%), EU-28 (9%), China (6%), Thailand (6%), the United States (5%), Mexico (4%), Russia (4%), Pakistan (3%) and Australia (3%).

 

>The specifications for sugar listed in London are:

  • Contract size: 50 tonnes
  • Quotation price: dollar and cent per tonne
  • Quotation deadline March (H), May (K), August (Q), October (V), December (Z),

 

>The specifications of sugar listed in New York

  • Tcontract size: 112,000 pounds (1 pound =0.453592kg)
  • Quotation price: us dollar per pound
  • Quotation deadline March (H), May (K), July (N), October (V)

 

The price of sugar is influenced by certain fundamentals, in particular the evolution of stocks, production forecasts, climatic conditions and any other geopolitical events that may disrupt the supply chain, in this case armed conflicts, strikes, etc.

In 2017, the price of brown sugar fell sharply (-11%). The abolition of production quotas imposed by the European Union on 1er October 2017 has not been conducive to improving things. It has led to a massive arrival of sugar on the international market. The latter is already saturated by a sharp increase in world production, whether in Brazil, Asia or India, and the decline in agrofuels made from sugarcane.

 

 

<However, analysts continue to monitor the price of ethanol, which is a very important driver of sugar prices. Brazil is a major producer of ethanol from sugar, traders will look closely at the break point between the price of ethanol and the price of sugar. Any impact in Brazil is highly significant on the world sugar market.

 

  1. b) Analysis of USDA bi-annual report

 

 

The production of ethanol from sugar cane in Brazil is a factor to be integrated into fundamental analysis. But the share of Brazilian production devoted to ethanol production is low, averaging 0.35 million tonnes over the last three years. The influence of this data on prices is small in a context where the expected level of production is high.

c- Technical analysis of the future sugar market quoted in London (Daily chart)

From the point of view of technical analysis, all moving averages (20, 50 and 100) are on a downward trend. There has been a downward trend since May 2017. This trend is in line with the analysis of the fundamental data related to production forecasts, which were based on lower consumption and higher production. However, there was a price change between November 2017 and January 2018 in a channel characterized by the range phase formed by price levels between $399.30 and $350.90. The next publications, particularly those to be published in May 2018, will provide a more precise market orientation by the end of the year.

Source: Zonebourse.com


Williams TEPINHIWilliams TEPINHImars 14, 2018
Marché-pétrolier-1024x576.jpg

13min3310

Oil is the main source of energy in modern society. It is also a source of war and pollution and our dependence on black gold divides public opinion. The use of oil is very different: indeed, the more developed a country is, the more the use of oil is dedicated to transport. In addition, the oil shocks of the XXème siècle allowed leaders of developed countries to understand that oil should be better used where it is not possible to replace it. Oil is used everywhere. It is the foundation of consumer society. Its cost was very cheap for a fossil commodity until recently, it is present in our economy as an essential, almost irreplaceable product. It is both a source of energy and a highly prized raw material. We begin to be aware of it when its price increases, because its impact is felt in our movements, our food, our comfort, our tranquility.

>Production, consumption and reserve of oil

World oil consumption is growing rapidly. It increased by 11% between 1970 and 2000, and it is estimated that it will increase by a further 30 to 40% by 2030. This is the result of a combination of several factors:

A GALOPPING DEMOGRAPHY: the world population will increase to 9 billion between 2020 and 2050. Even if the countries with the highest population growth are not the most industrialized, this population growth will have an impact on global oil consumption.

THE EMERGENCE OF NEW INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES: Some countries, such as China and India, which together represent about a quarter of the world’s population, are in full economic development. Their expansion generates high oil consumption. By 2030, it is estimated that oil consumption in these emerging countries will account for 50% of world consumption

EXPANSION OF THE TRANSPORT SECTOR: 97% of transport depends on petroleum products. The globalisation of the economy and trade implies a significant development of the transport sector. It is estimated that transport currently accounts for 50% of oil consumption; this proportion is expected to rise to 60% by 2030. In other words, oil consumption for the transport sector alone is expected to increase by about 35% by 2030

LE LACK OF COMPARABLE ALTERNATIVES :

There are few alternatives comparable to oil. Those with the greatest potential will only be able to replace oil if there is a willingness or a need to break with oil-based traditions. This is why agrofuels are widely supported by oil companies: they allow them to maintain control over distribution networks, and from a use point of view, agrofuels represent only a technological evolution. They do not change consumer behaviour, and that is what interests those who master distribution networks.

We could mention hydrogen, in the same kind of problem of distribution networks (and production, because hydrogen is an energy carrier, just like electricity, and not a energy source).
Solutions for the production and use of decentralised energy sources, while they may be a viable alternative, are not preferred because they imply a change of habit for suppliers and consumers. If technology could offer us a new source of clean energy compatible with current uses and distribution methods today or in the near future, it would undoubtedly become the norm. But such energy sources do not exist: those that present themselves as such are only lures boasting biased qualities. It is generally « sufficient » to analyse their sectors as a whole in order to become aware of the aberrations they constitute, or the conditions under which they could really constitute (even partially) a credible alternative (and to become aware that these conditions are not respected)

> OIL-BASED ECONOMY OF COUNTRIES

When an economy is largely based on oil exports, it is certain that GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will increase or decrease according to the rise or fall in oil prices. After being stable for more than three years, around $110 oil began to fall in June 2014, reaching about $50 a barrel in December. Since the beginning of 2015, the tremors have been severe, the price is now around 60 dollars, such a variation has particularly serious consequences for the countries producing black gold.

Let us take the case of Venezuela the dependence on oil is extreme, oil represents 95% of exports and constitutes two thirds of the State’s revenues. The inexorable fall in oil prices had considerably reduced Venezuelan monetary receipts and dealt a terrible blow to imports, leading to the shortage of many essential products. All these factors have led to an uncontrolled rate of inflation, to the point that the Central Bank of Venezuela refuses to provide this year’s figures on price increases.

>OIL RUN AND WAR

The geopolitics of oil describes the impact of oil demand and supply on the policies of countries that consume and produce this essential raw material for today’s economic lifestyle. As the oil deposits are limited and their geographical location does not generally coincide with that of the consuming countries, oil resource exploitation is a source of tension. Consumer countries, generally with high power military, are then tempted to use powerful means of pressure (military or economic) to gain access to these resources. Oil, a highly strategic, has been frequently associated with international confrontations since the beginning of the xxe century.

In Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State of «  Caliph Ibrahim has seized vast oil fields and intends to exploit them as war booty.

For the peoples of this region, oil is not a « «  manne «  but an evil that corrupts leaders and, instead of strengthening states, weakens them permanently. The Iraq war willed by Bush was first and foremost a war for control over the country’s oil resources, in order to prevent China from having access to oil fields essential for its development. It actually led to the destabilization of all the States in the Region.
In Palestine, the battle for water resources is raging. The State of Israel and the settlers suffocate Palestine by opening or closing the tap as they see fit.
In Africa, the Mali war is not – unlike the humanitarian storytelling we are told – a war without economic stakes. The proximity of Niger’s uranium sites, exploited by Areva, as well as the exploitable resources in North Mali, are at the heart of this conflict.

GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY (OIL) AND OTHER ENERGY

Fossil fuels are the main contributors to greenhouse gas emissions and therefore to the increase in temperature of the Earth’s surface that we have observed since the end of the 19th century.

In the major industrial countries, they provide most of the energy needed to manufacture consumer goods. That is to say their economic and strategic importance! The foreseeable decrease in their availability before the end of the century, first the oil, then natural gas, and finally coal, is worrying for the future of highly consuming countries.

SOUTHER A WORLD WITHOUT OIL?

Knowing that oil exploitation is a source of wealth and economic success,

But this energy is non-renewable and since its consumption continues to grow for growing needs, which could explain the increase in its production.

Oil discoveries are decreasing as they occur, even those found are in geographical areas where climatic conditions are extreme, requiring new drilling methods that are very advanced or even non-existent.

However, it is estimated that oil reserves have a finite consumption period, which already explains the presence of renewable energies, even if black gold remains irreplaceable.

Then a world without oil can put an end to our dependence on oil, which is present almost everywhere, this is our daily life. Oil companies will be or are even in the process of being confronted with this impasse, if the oil is over we will no longer be able to talk about oil companies because insurance companies do insurance, electricity companies produce electricity, and oil companies?

We must be courageous to say that they will disappear unless they diversify their activity beyond oil.

Several renewable energy companies are emerging and will multiply. The problem is that renewable energies are manufactured and their use depends only on climatic factors, such as the sun, wind etc.

Imagine a future where the means of transport have changed their operating configuration, no more turbojet engines with kerosene, no more propellant for rockets, the situation is getting more complicated. Will it be necessary to destroy any mechanical system working with black gold?

Then humanity will know a new phase, because depending on renewable energies would be eternal, and will change our habits

However, some countries whose economies depend on oil have begun to address the issue of energy alternation by directing their investment towards other activities in order to relay their economies. Profitability in oil production remains high, which is the cause of their economic boom. The question would be to know if they will then experience the same growth as they did during the black gold era?

Perhaps one thing could reassure us, since oil is often seen as the nerve of war and certain geopolitical tensions, and its absence could stabilize international relations.


BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESjanvier 5, 2018
bitcoin-1813503_960_720.jpg

10min7380

The Bitcoin programming was discharged in mid 2009 by a puzzling maker who passed by the name of Satoshi Nakamoto. The look is still on for the genuine character of Satoshi. The product discharged by Satoshi set out the essential tenets for Bitcoin and the PC arrange on which it lives. Dissimilar to different types of cash, which are controlled by governments and monetary establishments, Bitcoin works on a decentralized system of PCs that nobody organization controls.

At the point when Bitcoin was discharged in 2009, it was depicted as another sort of electronic money. As of late, however, numerous software engineers chipping away at Bitcoin have said the framework in its present shape isn’t an especially decent approach to pay for things. They contend that it is best intended to fill in as a kind of rare ware, as computerized gold, enabling individuals to keep their cash outside the control of governments and organizations. Many individuals who need to utilize virtual monetary forms for online installments are looking to Bitcoin contenders, as Bitcoin Cash and Monero.

What is « Bitcoin » and how it works?

 

Bitcoin is a cryptographic money and overall installment framework. It is the principal decentralized advanced cash, as the framework works without a national bank or single manager. The system is shared and exchanges happen between clients straightforwardly using cryptography, without a middle person. These exchanges are checked by arrange hubs and recorded in an unchanging open conveyed record called a blockchain. Bitcoin was created by an obscure individual or gathering of individuals under the name Satoshi Nakamoto and discharged as open-source programming in 2009. (Brito & Castillo, 2013)

Brito & Castillo (2013) added that Bitcoins are made as a reward for a procedure known as mining. They can be traded for different monetary standards, items, and administrations. As of February 2015, more than 100,000 shippers and merchants acknowledged bitcoin as installment. Research delivered by the University of Cambridge evaluates that in 2017, there are 2.9 to 5.8 million one of a kind clients utilizing a digital money wallet, a large portion of them utilizing bitcoin.

Is it a fraud?

Bitcoin, the crypto-rocket, shot past $11,000 during December 2017, adding more interruption to the advanced instalment showcases universally. This unrealistic development has additionally fueled the level headed discussion covering the eventual fate of bitcoin; most likely the primary decentralized computerized cash. Notwithstanding, still at an extremely beginning stage to yield any solid outcomes or set any benchmark, bitcoin idea has prompted blended input in the market. (Sharma, 2017)

On the off chance that there are specialists who trust this progressive idea is digging in for the long haul, at that point there is an area of naysayers who consider it as an over-overstated market bubble that will inevitably shrivel away with time. There are industry veterans contrasting this and the tulip knobs rise of Europe in the seventeenth century, when a solitary tulip globule was sold for ten times the yearly wages of a gifted laborer. At that point there are specialists that are very hopeful with this ascent and encourage the partners to embrace the strategy of hold up and watch as opposed to making any impulsive stride. (Sharma, 2017)

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JP Morgan, had called this ponder ascent of bitcoin a cheat, saying that it was more regrettable than the tulip knobs rise in Europe.

« I could mind less what bitcoin exchanges for, how it exchanges, why it exchanges, who exchanges it. In case you’re sufficiently dumb to get it, you’ll pay the cost for it one day, »

Dimon told a meeting in Washington, revealed BloombergGadfly.

What is its expected future?

If Bitcoin continues developing with a normal of +0.42% every day, the same as it has done in the previous 7 years. It ought to be around 250k out of 3 years, bitcoin’s cost could hit $100,000 per coin on the off chance that it keeps on tailing one of tech’s « brilliant guidelines ». (Tulic, 2017)

Criticism

The utilization of bitcoin by culprits has pulled in the consideration of money related controllers, administrative bodies, law requirement, and the media. In USA, the FBI arranged a knowledge evaluation and issued a pointed cautioning about speculation plans utilizing virtual currencies, and the US Senate held a hearing on virtual monetary standards in November 2013. (Lavin, 2013)

A few news outlets have affirmed that the prominence of bitcoins relies on the capacity to utilize them to buy unlawful products. In 2014, analysts at the University of Kentucky discovered « powerful proof that PC programming fans and unlawful action drive enthusiasm for bitcoin, and discover restricted or no help for political and speculation thought processes. (Yelowitz, 2014)

Conclusion

As illustrated beforehand, it has many points of interest and therefore it will stay pertinent as a money. Most by far of BTC exchanges by volume are made in China so the two will remain interlinked.

We see the greatest hazard to Bitcoin being its substitution and additionally parallel use by other digital forms of money. Bitcoin stalwart fans guarantee this is never going to be an issue since Bitcoin was the pioneer and all things considered appreciates first-mover benefit. This contention is likely imperfect on the grounds that despite the fact that the BTC is utilized for installments, this is just a moderately little % of all Bitcoins. One of its essential uses is being a store of significant worth and consequently other digital currencies can simply venture in and appreciate comparative status if total request requires it. The truth will surface eventually. The main sureness is that its cost will stay extremely unstable later on.

Meanwhile, we have no alternative other than to hold up and take after the improvements. In any case, the industry savants guarantee that a large portion of the worries with respect to the fate of bitcoin will be cleared before the current year’s over.

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  • Brito, J., & Castillo, A. (2013). Bitcoin: A Primer for Policymakers, 21.
  • Lavin, T. (2013). The SEC Shows Why Bitcoin Is Doomed. Bloomberg LP., 20.
  • Popper, N. (2017). Bitcoin’s Price Has Soared. What Comes Next? The New York Times Company, B3.
  • Sharma, A. (2017). Bitcoin: A fraud or an ultimate game-changer? Mediaquest Corp., 8-11.
  • Tulic, A. (2017). What is the expected price of Bitcoin in 2021? Captainaltcoin.com, 9.
  • Yelowitz, A. (2014). Characteristics of Bitcoin Users: An Analysis of Google Search Data. Social Science Research Network, 15.

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BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESjanvier 3, 2018
Techno-1024x576.jpg

4min14420

Introduction

The Internet is experiencing rapid growth and are helping to expand business and provide commercial opportunities globally. The Internet and specifically its usage provides an example that how its nature and consequences has been transforming the society. This paper investigate the effect of internet on society and internet role in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development.

Internet now has become more persistent than media tools in today’s globalised world. It offers the information that was not accessible before. The development has started taken place by the growth of the internet and communication technology. Anyone can access any information from anywhere. Internet has arisen as a medium of communication and it removed the geographical boundaries.. An important issue appeared which is the internet influence on society and  how the society is been transforming to a new emerging one.

Technology and Social Changes

Internet is transforming the lives of human beings as it is demonstrating a new virtual environment, It links the private space with the whole world as popular media did before but with the interactivity feature. The internet made the security issue becomes more complex and difficult to control. The digital age is now highly dependent on data and information transfer across many network nodes at faster speeds.

Internet influence on Education

Internets support education by providing new information and keep them updated and students can communicate with teachers online. Governments have an important role in computer learning by making various polices that drive people to participate into the online educational programmes. In positive aspects, Internet is helping the students in their education. On the other hand it has its negative aspects as there are many dangerous websites them. That is why Firewalls are important for security purposes in all fields.

Political Influence

Governments use the internet to propagate democratic values but It can be used as a tool to destruct national authority and affect on other countries internal affairs.

Conclusion

Internet has an impact on society and has bring major social change. The product information as even the smallest information can be easily found on Internet at the cheapest rates. Information and Communication Technology helps to remove the economical differences. And tries to remove the technological imbalances.

The discussed Internet influence on our society specialy on the fields of politics; education; and economics reflect the needs of the regulatory measures and computer laws.

Though many networks and information made the world as a community. People can access all the information that may help to form new kinds of identities; individual research activities that enable

Internet crosses the political and geographical. It should be used as a tool to gather information that can be used for the development purposes. And Governments should find ways to overcome the challenges such as online services, computer literacy using technology laws.


Marion MEYERMarion MEYERoctobre 27, 2016
International2-1.jpg

10min6540

La révolution numérique est en marche, à l’image de la révolution industrielle qui a bouleversé nos habitudes de vie et de consommation. Aujourd’hui, nous ne pouvons nous séparer de notre smartphone, et nous agrémentons notre maison d’outils pour analyser température ou qualité de l’air. Les assistants personnels deviendront bientôt indispensables. L’apparition de nouvelles sources d’information et la multiplication des objets connectés élargissent le champ des possibles en matière d’exploitation de données. Selon un rapport Ernst & Young (EY, 2014), on crée dans le monde autant de données en 10 minutes qu’il n’y en eût de l’aube de l’humanité jusqu’en 2003. Chaque minute, selon Domo, 204 millions d’emails sont envoyés, les utilisateurs de Facebook partagent 2,5 millions de contenus, et ceux de Twitter quelques 277 000 tweets. Cette surabondance de données transforme à la fois notre vision, notre appréhension et notre interprétation des informations qui nous entourent. Dès 1960, l’informatique décisionnelle a cherché à tirer profit de la gestion et la manipulation d’informations, afin de prendre des décisions. Cela est désormais possible à grande échelle. Le terme big data, ou données massives, renvoie à des volumes très importants de données, différant ainsi des volumes traités traditionnellement par les outils de gestion. Les capacités d’analyse sont démultipliées, celles de stockage et de traitement sont presque illimitées. De nouveaux outils et méthodes sont nécessaires pour analyser une telle quantité de données, et ainsi ainsi en extraire des informations ou prédictions qui serviront les analystes. Nous l’avons vu, les données s’accroissent et évoluent dans le même temps. Elles ne sont plus définies de manière exhaustive, ou au travers de seuls échantillonnages comme ce fut le cas. En dépit de son nom, le big data n’est pas uniquement une question de volumétrie, qui peut différer selon le secteur d’activité ou la taille de l’entreprise. Dès 2001, un modèle appelé “3 V” est proposé par Gartner, et orienté vers les axes suivants :

• Volumes (quantité de données à stocker ou à traiter);

• Vélocité (fréquence et vitesse d’enregistrement, d’exécution, d’analyse et de prise de décision);

• Variété (hétérogénéité des données, formats et supports).

Alors que ce modèle a permis d’éprouver la capacité des systèmes à traiter les données massives, d’autres critères ont par la suite été rajoutés dans un objectif métier. Comme vu précédemment, l’important n’est pas de détenir de nombreuses données dont la plupart ne servent pas. Il faut plutôt repérer les données pertinentes et justes, pouvant apporter de la valeur ajoutée à l’entreprise et à ses clients. Ainsi, les V pour véracité (fiabilité et qualité des données), et valeur (intrinsèque des données pour l’entreprise) se sont greffés au modèle des 3V. Le data mining permet de répondre à ces problématiques de sélection, et a toujours été au cœur du domaine des assurances. Ce terme renvoie aux outils et processus d’exploration, de modification et de modélisation de grands volumes de données. L’objectif est d’établir des relations entre les données jusqu’alors inconnues.

Bien que l’analyse de données et la statistique exploratoire existent depuis des décennies, l’avancée technologique et le big data ont permis l’évolution des pratiques. Alors qu’il s’agissait uniquement de modéliser le réel pour mieux le comprendre, le data mining se doit aussi d’être également un outil d’aide à la décision. Aussi, des techniques a priori éloignées de la culture statisticienne ont fait leur apparition, telles que la reconnaissance de formes (pattern recognition), ou l’apprentissage automatique (intelligence artificielle, machine learning). Les entreprises cherchent à utiliser le big data pour découvrir des faits dont ils n’avaient jusqu’alors pas connaissance. Les récessions économiques ont entraîné des changements profonds dans la plupart des entreprises, plus particulièrement celles qui dépendent de la consommation de masse. En utilisant les advanced analytics, les entreprises peuvent étudier le big data pour comprendre l’état actuel de leur activité, et suivre les aspects en évolution. Les données représentent à la fois défis et opportunités, pour les organisations et leurs fonctions financières. D’une part, la capacité à collecter, gérer, et analyser les données efficacement, peut mener à des meilleures décisions métiers et un avantage concurrentiel durable. Meglena Kuneva, commissaire européenne, soulignait dès 2009 que « les données personnelles sont le nouveau pétrole d’Internet et la nouvelle monnaie du monde digital ». Depuis, les données sont devenues une nouvelle classe d’actifs économiques. D’autre part, il est plus difficile de trouver la valeur des données lorsque celles-ci proviennent de partout, en dehors de ce qui a été géré historiquement par l’entreprise en interne. Maîtriser l’ensemble des informations générées par les systèmes de transactions représente déjà un défi complexe pour une entreprise. Au-delà de fournir aux entreprises des informations sur leur fonctionnement et leur activité, le big data permet également d’en savoir plus sur les comportements des consommateurs. Ainsi, il est possible de cibler un cluster de clients, afin de leur proposer des services ou des produits par lesquels ils pourraient être intéressés. Les objets connectés, par exemple, constituent une riche manne d’informations concernant leur propriétaire. Dans le contexte big data, les données sont de plus en plus intégrées dans les stratégies. C’est ainsi qu’une tendance a émergé : la data driven economy (l’économie guidée par les données). Le concept de l’Internet of Things (IoT, ou internet des objets), porte sur les échanges de données provenant d’objets connectés vers le réseau internet. Il s’agit également d’un marché doté d’un fort potentiel d’évolution, en raison du développement des technologies et de l’utilisation conjointe des données massives. En effet, les objets connectés (tels que les smartphones, smartwatches ou encore les capteurs environnementaux) récoltent de nombreuses données sur leurs utilisateurs, d’où un couplage évident avec les techniques big data. Les utilisations de ces données peuvent être variées, et représentent un avantage concurrentiel important pour les entreprises qui se sont lancées dans l’aventure big data. Les banques et les assureurs ont ainsi la possibilité de proposer des offres sur-mesure à leurs clients, selon leurs profils et leurs comportements. À l’heure où la personnalisation et l’expérience client occupent une place prépondérante dans les stratégies, le big data offre de nombreuses perspectives intéressantes, si tant est qu’on en maîtrise les techniques. La route est donc longue et semée d’embûches, mais big data et IoT font partie des technologies de l’industrie du futur. Les entreprises ont donc tout intérêt à monter dans le train en marche.

Marion MEYER



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