BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESJanuary 3, 2018
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36min1940

Overview

The theory of capital structure and its relationship with a firm’s value and performance has been a puzzling issue in corporate finance and accounting literature since the seminal work of Modigliani and Miller (1958) (MM-1958). MM-1958 argue that under very restrictive assumptions of perfect capital markets, investors’ homogenous expectations, tax-free economy, and no transactions costs, capital structure is irrelevant in determining firm value. According to this proposition, a firm’s value is determined by its real assets, not by the mix of securities it issues. If this proposition does not hold then arbitrage mechanisms will take place, investor will buy the shares of the undervalued firm and sell the shares of the overvalued firm in such a way that identical income streams are obtained. As investors exploit these arbitrage opportunities, the price of overvalued shares will fall and that of the undervalued shares will rise, until both prices are equal.

After Modigliani and Miller, Jensen and Meckling discussed the agency cost theory which refers to the potential conflict between managers and shareholders in one side, and between shareholders and debtors in another side.

Since Jensen and Meckling’s argument the relationship between capital structure and firm performance, many researchers have begun to study the relationship between capital structure and firm performance.

The main objective of this paper is to examine the impact of capital structure measured by debt ratio (DR) on financial performance measured by earning per share (EPS), return on equity (ROE), and return on assets (ROA).

The paper proceeds along the following lines. Presents the theoretical framework, discusses review of literature, discusses the research methodology, hypothesis, data, and variables, discusses data analysis and results and  offers findings and conclusions.

Problem Definition

Is there any relation between Capital structure and performance of the stock returen in the stock change, the effect of the capital restructure on the stock return.

Capital structure refer to its debt level relative on the balance sheet and of a company finance its assets through a combination of debt, equity or mixture between securities and that a company`s capital structure is then the figuration or structuring its liabilities.

Theoretical Framework

To perform our analysis to the research under study we will depend on the annual reports of the company to find the Capital structure results and the financial results, in which the content analysis for the Capital structure as the independent variables in which the researcher believes that it is the most suitable method.

Concerning the financial performance it will be measured using return on equity and the return on assets results to assess the dependent variables.

Dependent Variable

Firm Performance

Earnings per share (EPS): is    Net income – Dividends on preffered stock

                                                                    Average Outstanding share

Return on equity (ROE): is the net profits after tax divided by the total equity

Return on assets (ROA): is the net profits after taxes divided by total assets.

Independent Variables

Capital Structure 

Capital structure of a firm is measured by different accounting based methods like short term liability to total assets, long term liability to total assets and total debt to total assets.

Debt Ratio = Total Debt

                    Total Assets

Moderating Variables

The Financial leverage is calculated by dividing the total long term debt of the company to the total assets

Research assumption

Assumption 1: All companies under the study have a social responsible teams

Assumption2: There is no Governmental intervention in CSR

Thesis Structure:

The research is delivered in three chapters. The first chapter will give a brief introduction providing an overview of the research, problem definition, and research objective. Then, a brief description of the theoretical framework, its components, research major and minor questions. Finally the research type, sampling, and data analysis method used in the research are mentioned. Chapter two will introduce the previous researches that talked about the CSR and Company’s performance. Chapter three is the theoretical framework: it covers the research design, explained briefly in Chapter one, variables, measurement and the sampling design and correlation model.

Capital Structure Definition

Capital structure has been defined by many authors and scholars. However, these definitions are explicit and have the same meaning. This research work adopts that of Pandey which says “a company’s capital structure refers to its debt level relative to equity on the balance sheet.

It is a snapshot of the amounts and types of capital that a firm has access to, and what financing methods it has used to conduct growth initiatives such as research and development or acquiring assets”.

The relationship between Capital Structure &Stock Return (Financial Performance)

From this definition, we can say that capital structure is a trend at how a company finances its assets through a combination of debt, equity or mixture between securities and that a company’s capital structure is then the figuration or structuring its liabilities.

The capital structure indicators refer to long-term debt, short-term debt; total debt and total equity, while return on assets and return on equity are the performance proxies.

The Theoretical Axis:

. Modigliani and miller (mm) theory (1958, 1963): In Modigliani and Miller provided the seminal in capital structure under certain assumptions include no taxes, homogenous expectations, perfect capital markets, and no transaction costs [1]. This theory which called “capital structure irrelevance” states that the relationship between capital structure and cost of capital is irrelevant, that mean the increases in debt does not effect on cost of capital. In a result, the investor’s expectations of future benefits are totally effect on firm value and cost of capital.

Latterly, Modigliani and Miller introduced new evidence that cost of capital effect on capital structure, and thus effect on firm value with taking taxes as assumption into consideration, which refer that borrowing give tax advantage, because the interest will deduct from the tax which result what is known as tax shields, which in turn reduce the cost of debt and then maximize the firm performance.

Pecking order theory: Pecking order theory is the result of Asymmetric information. The pecking order model does not discuss the optimal capital structure as significant point, but states that firms have two main sources to fund its financial needs which are internal and external finance; the theory claims that firms prefer to use firstly internal finance such as excess liquid assets or retained earnings then external finance. If internal financing is not enough to fund investment projects, firms may or may not obtain external financing, and if they do, In order to minimize additional costs of asymmetric information, the managers head for choosing between the different sources of external finance, firms prefer to use debt leverage firstly, secondly issuance of preferred stock and finally issuance of common stock.

Trade-off theory: Trade off theory is an extension of the MM theory developed by Miller. The theory proposes that the firm’s optimal capital structure include the tradeoff among the influences of firms and personal taxes, agency costs and bankruptcy costs, etc. Tradeoff theory expect that corporations choose levels of debt in order to achieve a balance among the benefits from the interest tax shield with the costs related to a future financial distress or with current financial inflexibility

The agency theory: Agency cost theory which provided by Jensen and Meckling is discussing the conflict of interest between principals (shareholders) and decision makers (agents) of firms (managers, board members, etc), this conflict stems from the differences in behavior or decisions by point out that the parties (agents and shareholders) often have different goals, and different tolerances toward risk. In this case, the managers whom are responsible of guiding the firm toward to achieve them personal goals rather than maximizing benefits to the shareholders. Hence, the main conflict that shareholders face is to ensure that managers (agents) do not invest the free cash flow in unprofitable projects. In another hand, increasing the debt to equity ratio would assist firms to make sure that managers are running the firm more efficiently.

Badar and Saeed study showed the impact of using leverage in firm’s capital structure on firm’s performance [7]. They applied study on all firms of food sector listed on Karachi stock exchange. The paper covered a period of five years from 2007-2011. The capital structure variables were three variables, long term debts to total assets (LTDTA), Total debt to Equity (TDE), and Short-term debts to Total assets (STDTA). and they measured firm performance by Return on Assets (ROA) and Assets Turnover Ratio (ATO), they found that long term debts has a positive and significant impact on firm performance, while, short term debts has negative significant impact of on firm performance.

Since Modigliani and Miller’s theory has been published many of the researchers are still studying the relationship between capital structure and firm performance, some of them found that there is a negative relation between capital structure and firm performance, while others found a positive relation between capital structure and firm performance. In another hand many papers referred to a significant relation between structure and firm performance, while some of them referred to an insignificant relation between structure and firm performance

Mumtaz study seeks to investigate the relationship between capital structure and firm performance in the context of large private companies in Pakistan. To measure capital structure they used Debt to Equity ratio (DR), while ratios such as, Return on Asset (ROA), Earning per Share (EPS), Return on equity (ROE), Operating profit Margin, Price to Earnings Ratio are used to measure firm performance. Moreover, the relationship between capital structure of a firm and market value of the firm is significant and negative.

Ahmad study discussed the influence of capital structure on firm performance of Malaysian firms listed as consumers and industrials sectors in Malaysian equity market from 2005 to 2010, to measure firm performance they use return on equity (ROE) and return on asset (ROA), and to measure capital structure they use long-term debt (LTD), short-term debt (STD), and total debt (TD). The study results that each of debt level has significant negative relationship with ROE, while ROA has significant positive relationship only with STD and TD.

 

Iorpev and kwanum study investigates the relationship between capital structure and firm performance of manufacturing companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange [12]. They covered a period of five (5) years from 2005-2009. The study used multiple regression analysis to examine firm performance indicators such as Profit Margin (PM) and Return on Asset (ROA), while, the capital structure variables were, Long term debts to Total assets (LTDTA), Short-term debts to Total assets (STDTA), and Total debt to Equity (TDE). They found that STDTA and LTDTA have insignificant negative relationship with ROA and PM; while TDE has positive relationship with ROA and negative relationship with PM. STDTA is significantly related with ROA while LTDTA is significantly related with PM. The study concludes that capital structure is not a main determinant of firm performance.

The Imperial axis

The results of empirical studies on the nature of the relationship between Capital structure and Stock Return (Financial Performance)

Since Modigliani and Miller’s theory has been published many of the researchers are still studying the relationship between capital structure and firm performance , some of them have been found a negative relation between capital structure and firm performance such as Mumtaz,  Ahmad and while; Badar and Saeed found a significant positive relation between capital structure and firm performance . As well as Iorpev and kwanum found that capital structure and firm performance have insignificant negative relation

History for stock Market in EGPT

To give a historical background about the Egyptian stock market, it began its activities in the year 1883. At that time, there was only one stock exchange in Alexandria, and then Cairo Stock Exchange began its operations in the year 1903. Focusing mainly from the mid of the last century, the stock market was badly affected by the series of nationalization that began during the late fifties. The government acquisition of ninety three of the most active companies in the stock market at that time and transferring their shares into government bonds led later on to a decrease in the number of listed companies and the number of stockbrokers. Market Capitalization, which is the number of listed shares times the current market price, decreased as a percentage of GDP from 13% in 1958 to only 1% in 1974. Also, the number of listed companies decreased from 275 in 1958 to 55 in 1974. The number of stockbrokers declined as well from 55 to 15 during this same period. Moreover, at the level of market activity, the value of trade declined sharply from 66.7 million pounds in 1958 to only 4 million pounds in 1974. In conclusion, during Nasser’s era nationalization affected the stock market negatively. It was open but witnessed a significant slowdown during this period until its revival after implementing the Open Door policy.

During Sadat’s era, the stock market was free from the government regulations to encourage both domestic and foreign investment. Under the Open Door policy, the Capital Market Authority (CMA) was established to supervise the activities of the stock market. Unfortunately, due to several reasons, such as: the unavailability of securities laws and the protection of small investors, the stock market was dormant for about 20 years from 1970- 1990. Added to the above, the weakness of the economy was something that led to the underdevelopment of the securities industry until 1992 (Capital Market Authority 1996b).

With the introduction of the economic reform program at the beginning of the 1990s, a new capital market law was enacted encouraging the investment by the private sector with more protection granted to investors and more involvement of the banks in encouraging the capital markets through mutual funds.

Based on the quarterly report of EGX, in the last quarter of the year 2010, the total value of shares traded reached L.E. 72.4 Billion. While, the total volume traded reached 7,879 million securities done over 2,366 thousand transactions. A drop was witnessed in the first quarter of the year 2011 because of the political instability associated with the 25th of January revolution, and its consequences. The total value of traded shares reached L.E. 37.7 Billion, while the total volume traded was 3,387million shares over 986 thousand transactions. A drop of 16% in market capitalization was also witnessed by the end of the first quarter of 2011, with a total of L.E. 408 billion. Egypt is considered the second in rank after South Africa with regards to market capitalization

Based on the IFC sustainable investment country report, the market capitalization of the Egyptian stock market was 75,212 million US dollars in 2010. In January 2011, the market capitalization dropped to 69,661 million US dollars. During the period from July 2007 to June 2008, Egypt was ranked number eight of 28 emerging countries with respect to returns, and 18 out of 28 in terms of risk ranked from high to low. The annual market return was 29.7%, while the market risk was 6.94% for the same period. By the end of June 2008, Standard and Poor’s and IFCG Indices for the price – earnings ratio (P/E) for Egypt was 15.7 compared to an average P/E ratio of 26.4 for emerging markets. This indicates that the prices of stocks in the Egyptian market on average are relatively low compared to other emerging markets. While developed stock markets can perform efficiently as they possess sound,

Based on the IFC sustainable investment country report, the market capitalization of the Egyptian stock market was 75,212 million US dollars in 2010. In January 2011, the market capitalization dropped to 69,661 million US dollars. During the period from July 2007 to June 2008, Egypt was ranked number eight of 28 emerging countries with respect to returns, and 18 out of 28 in terms of risk ranked from high to low. The annual market return was 29.7%, while the market risk was 6.94% for the same period. By the end of June 2008, Standard and Poor’s and IFCG Indices for the price – earnings ratio (P/E) for Egypt was 15.7 compared to an average P/E ratio of 26.4 for emerging markets. This indicates that the prices of stocks in the Egyptian market on average are relatively low compared to other emerging markets. While developed stock markets can perform efficiently as they possess sound,

Theoretical Framework

To perform our analysis to the research under study we will depend on the annual reports of the company to find the Capital Structure results and the financial results , in which the content analysis for the Capital Structure as the independent variables in which the researcher believes that it is the most suitable method .

Firm performance it will be measured using return on equity and the return on assets results to assess the dependent variables.

Figure 3.1 reflects the Independent, Dependent & Moderating Variables

Data Analysis Method

There many ways to measure the corporate social responsibility in which we can use the  Kinder, Lydenberg, Domini (KLD) database which use the database from more than 650 companies in the US stock markets or we can use the Survey method by using a questionnaire to ask a number of participants about the social responsibility issues .

However the researcher will use the content analysis method used by (Mahoney, L.S. and Roberts, R.W., 2007) in which he believes that it will most participate in accurate results.

The method to collect the data will be using the content analysis.  Unit analysis to be used is sentences.  The Procedures will include the following: each annual report was traced for the sentences on each component of the CSR.  The number of sentences for each annual report is then calculated for each component and for total to get the CSR index (composite).

The procedures will go as follows: as per (Mahoney, L.S. and Roberts, R.W., 2007) & (Fauzi H. M., 2007).   We will use the guideline as indicated in the following in which the corporate social responsibilities will be assessed on a scale of zero to two for both strength and weakness for each dimension. . -2 rating will be granted for any dimension indicates major concern, -1 indicates a notable concern, 0 indicates no notable or major strength and concern, +1 indicates a notable strength and +2 indicates a major strength . The CSP index will be then calculated by summing all dimensions scores for each company.

Table 3.1 here show the corporate social performance measure according to  Michael Jantzi Research Associates, Inc.  (Modified for the purpose of our research)

Dimension

StrengthConcern
Community Issues-Generous Giving

-Innovating Giving

-Community consultation/     Engagement

-Strong aboriginal    Relationship

Lack of Consultation/   Engagement

-Breach of Covenant

-Weak aboriginal relation

Workplace-Strong Employment Equity   Program

-Woman on board of   directors

-Women in senior    management

-Work/family benefit

-Minority/women   Contracting

Lack of employment equity initiative

-Employment equity   Controversies

EnvironmentEnvironmental   management strength

-Exceptional environment   planning and impact    assessment

-Environmentally sound   resource use  

-Environmental impact reduction

–Beneficial product and   service

-Environment management concern.  

-Inadequate environmental   planning or impact   assessment

-Unsound resource use

-Poor compliance record

-Substantial emissions/discharges

-Negative impact of   operation

-Negative impact of   Products

 

References

  • Allouche, J., & Laroche, P. (2005). Responsabilité sociale et performance financière des entreprises : une synthèse de la literature [Social responsibility and the financial performance of businesses: a summary of the literature]. Paper presented at ‟La responsabilité sociale de l’entrepris. nancy,france.
  • Aupperle, K. E. (1985). An empirical examination of the relationship between corporate social responsibility and profitability. Academy of Management Journal, 28(2), 446–463.
  • Balabanis, G., Philipps, H. C., & Lyall, J.;. (1998). Corporate social responsibility and economic performance in the top British companies, are they linked? European Business Review, 98(1), 25–44.
  • Cornell, B. &. (1987). Corporate stakeholders and corporate finance. Financial Management,. 16(1), 4–14. .
  • Fauzi, H. (2009). Corporate Social and Financial Performance: Empirical Evidence from American Companies. Globsyn Management Journal, Forthcoming .
  • Fauzi, H. M. (2007). Institutional Ownership and Corporate Social Performance” Issues in Social and Environmental Accounting, Vol. 1, No. 2, 334-347.
  • Freeman, R. E. (1984). Strategic management: A stakeholder approach. Boston: Pitman.
  • Friedman, M. (1962). Capitalism and Freedom. University Of Chicago press.
  • Friedman, M. (1970). The social responsibility of business is to increase its profits. New York Times Magazine, September, 13, 32-33, 122-124. .
  • Gérard Hirigoyen, T. P.-R. (2015). Relationships between Corporate Social Responsibility and Financial Performance: What is the Causality? . Journal of Business & Management Volume 4, Issue 1 , 18-43.
  • Gomez, P. Y. (2001). La République des actionnaires: Le gouvernement des entreprises entre démocratie et démagogie [The Republic of shareholders: The government of businesses between democracy and demagogy].
  • Graves, S. B., & Waddock, S. A. (1999). A look at the financial-social performance nexus when quality of management is held constant. International Journal of Value-Based Management., 12(1), 87–99.
  • Jensen, M. (2002). Value maximization, stakeholder theory, and the corporate objective function. Business Ethics Quaterly, 235-256.
  • Jones, T. (1980). Corporate Social Responsibility revisited , redefined. California Mangment Review, 22(3),59-67.
  • Mahoney, L.S. and Roberts, R.W. (2007). “Corporate Social Performance, Financial Performance and Institutional Ownership in Canadian Firms”. Accounting Forum, 31(3): 233-253., 233-253.
  • Margolis, J. D., & Walsh, J. P. . (2003). Misery loves companies: Rethinking social initiatives by business. Administrative Science Quarterly, 48(2), 268–305. .
  • McWilliams, A., & Siegel, D. . (2001). Corporate social responsibility: A theory of the firm perspective. Academy of Management Review, 26(1), 117–127. .
  • Mosely, D. P. (1996). Managment: Ledership in action.
  • Perrini, F. R. (2011). Deconstructing the relationship between corporate social and financial performance, 102(1), 59 – 76.
  • Post, J. W. (1996). Buisness & Scociety : Corporate Strategy , Public Policy & Ethics.
  • Preston, L. E., & O’Bannon, D. P. (1997). The corporate social–financial performance relationship: a typology and analysis, 36(4),419-429.
  • Roberts, R. W. (1992). Determinants of corporate social responsibility disclosure: An application of stakeholder theory. Accounting, Organizations and Society, 17(6), 595–612.
  • Thomas L. Wheelen and J. David Hunger. (2009). Strategic Managment & Buisness Policy twelfth Edition.
  • Ullmann, A. A. (1985). Data in Search of a Theory: A critical examination of the relationship among social performance, social disclosure, and economic performance of US firms. Academy of Management Review, 10(3), 540–557. .
  • Waddock, S. A., & Graves, S. B. (1997). The corporate social performance – Financial performance link. Strategic Management Journal, 18(4), 303–319.
  • Wood, D. (1991). Corporate Social Responsibility Academy Of Mangment Review, 691-718.
  • Wood, D. (1994). Buisness & Society New York: Harper Collins1994.
  • Wu, M. L. (2006). Corporate social performance, corporate financial performance, and firm size: A meta-analysis. Journal of American Academy of Business, Cambridge, 8(1), 163–171. .

BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESJanuary 3, 2018
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4min1600

Introduction

The Internet is experiencing rapid growth and are helping to expand business and provide commercial opportunities globally. The Internet and specifically its usage provides an example that how its nature and consequences has been transforming the society. This paper investigate the effect of internet on society and internet role in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) development.

Internet now has become more persistent than media tools in today’s globalised world. It offers the information that was not accessible before. The development has started taken place by the growth of the internet and communication technology. Anyone can access any information from anywhere. Internet has arisen as a medium of communication and it removed the geographical boundaries.. An important issue appeared which is the internet influence on society and  how the society is been transforming to a new emerging one.

Technology and Social Changes

Internet is transforming the lives of human beings as it is demonstrating a new virtual environment, It links the private space with the whole world as popular media did before but with the interactivity feature. The internet made the security issue becomes more complex and difficult to control. The digital age is now highly dependent on data and information transfer across many network nodes at faster speeds.

Internet influence on Education

Internets support education by providing new information and keep them updated and students can communicate with teachers online. Governments have an important role in computer learning by making various polices that drive people to participate into the online educational programmes. In positive aspects, Internet is helping the students in their education. On the other hand it has its negative aspects as there are many dangerous websites them. That is why Firewalls are important for security purposes in all fields.

Political Influence

Governments use the internet to propagate democratic values but It can be used as a tool to destruct national authority and affect on other countries internal affairs.

Conclusion

Internet has an impact on society and has bring major social change. The product information as even the smallest information can be easily found on Internet at the cheapest rates. Information and Communication Technology helps to remove the economical differences. And tries to remove the technological imbalances.

The discussed Internet influence on our society specialy on the fields of politics; education; and economics reflect the needs of the regulatory measures and computer laws.

Though many networks and information made the world as a community. People can access all the information that may help to form new kinds of identities; individual research activities that enable

Internet crosses the political and geographical. It should be used as a tool to gather information that can be used for the development purposes. And Governments should find ways to overcome the challenges such as online services, computer literacy using technology laws.


BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESJanuary 3, 2018
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5min890

The effect of country of origin on product evaluations shows that consumer perceives products made in developed countries to be of higher quality. Consumers always link between the product and how much the COO had experience in producing this type of the product.  There are different   reasons, like offshore  outsourcing of manufacturing   to emerging countries  has changed the  perceptions, of consumers  based on the country of design, country of parts, and country of assembly.,  Man y ‘factors affect this  change in perception  of consumer.  This change varies, according to demographics, psychographics, and social and economic factors from the developed to emerging

Factors related to COO affecting the brand image

There are several factors affecting the image of the country of origin.

  • The COO image (political economic development) and degree of industrialization
  • Experience of the COO in the product category

1. The COO image (political economic development) and degree of industrialization

It was suggested that product perceived quality relates positively to the perceived country of origin image due to these aspects (political- level of economic development).

The more the country is developed in these aspects, the better the brand image of the product will be, the level of development generally and in industries specifically it was found that information about the country of origin is of more importance to consumers than price and  the brand when evaluating and comparing the quality of products from certain developed countries.

2. Experience of the COO in the product category

The consumers may extend beyond the country image, as they will tend to associate a product category with a country. If there is a logical connection between the country and the product  category. E.g. Consumers tend to associate the high quality electronic products to country like japan

So if the country of origin is divided into manufactory and designing ones there should be a fit between them. As consumers will be confused about quality. This happened when Nike started out sourcing the manufacturing in Vietnam.

This consistency will make the product avoid conflict in perceiving the quality by consumer.

Customers- when they come to assess the brand and build a quality perception-they  are directed to the skill, resources, and ability to produce higher quality products in many countries. For example, Japan is famous for their hi-tech products versus Italy who is known for the fashion industries.

Studies were conducted in south Africa after the opening of its market to global competition and in Japan, studies were focused on electronics market. According to the results, many consumers preferred products from developed countries, such as Europe and the United states, because of the belief that these products are of higher quality. Consumers in south Africa believed that Americans and Europeans were very concerned with beauty and image and therefore apparel and other wearable goods would be manufactured to the standards required by these consumers. This concept of that developed countries manufacture better quality products was based on the country’s image in the minds of consumers.

The degree of industrialization how much the country have experience in being industrial and how much time they experience this field of industry. It appears when consumer’s old vision about Japan being automotive manufacturer 30 years ago and nowadays perception. Also the comparison between Japan and Korea also that between China and Korea.


BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESDecember 30, 2017
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12min570

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La diversification classique, c’était avant

La gestion actuelle met en avant la disparition du concept de diversification appartenant à la théorie moderne du portefeuille développée par Markowitz dans les années 1950.

Le modèle de Markowitz a pour but de construire un portefeuille contenant des actifs à faible corrélation qui sont principalement des actifs risqués, d’une part, tels que les actions et des actifs non risqués d’autre part, tels que les obligations. Le mixte de ces deux classes d’actifs permet de minimiser le risque auquel un portefeuille est exposé pour un rendement donné. Ce portefeuille est usuellement nommé le portefeuille efficient. Le risque actions prédominant, les gérants se sont réorientés vers d’autres types de gestions.

Par la suite, la seconde génération de gestion a vu l’introduction, dans les portefeuilles des gérants de nouvelles classes d’actifs afin de réduire ce risque actions. Les fonds exposés à cette stratégie ont finalement été impacté au même titre que les actions par différentes crises telles que la bulle internet, les subprimes ou encore la crise de la dette souveraine pour ne citer que les plus récentes. Les classes d’actifs incorporées dans les portefeuilles dans un but de diversification se révèlent positivement corrélées aux actions.

Désormais, « prime » à l’investissement factoriel 

Après un entretien avec un membre d’une société de gestion afin de connaître davantage cette stratégie, j’ai pu en apprendre davantage sur ces portefeuilles long/short qui représentent le présent de la gestion de portefeuille institutionnelle. Exit la diversification opposant actions et obligations qui tendent à se corréler en période de forte aversion au risque, les actifs tels que les actions sont désormais décomposés en facteurs (Figure 1).

Figure 1 : Les facteurs utilisés

FacteursDescription
MarchéRendement des actions supérieur au taux sans risque.
ValeurRendement des actions surévaluées comparé à celles sous évaluées.
MomentumLes actions qui ont performé dans un passé plus ou moins proche tendent à performer davantage que les autres.
VolatilitéPréférence des actions à faible volatilité qui surperforment historiquement.
TailleLes petites entreprises surperforment les grandes en rendement.

 

La nouvelle génération de gestionnaires considère donc ces facteurs afin d’optimiser leur rendement en lieu et place des actifs traditionnels.

À partir de ces facteurs, il est possible de construire les portefeuilles long/short précédemment évoqués afin de bénéficier des primes provenant de chaque facteur (Figure 2).

Facteur value

  • L’idée est que la prime de valeur est obtenue en étant long des actions sous-évaluées (rapport entre le dernier prix de l’action et son prix moyen à long terme) et short des actions surévaluées. Partant du principe que les prix des actions devraient converger vers leur prix moyen, ce principe d’arbitrage permet de se couvrir en période de crise même si le risque reste présent.

Facteur momentum

  • La prime momentum est la plus intuitive puisqu’elle consiste à acheter les actions qui ont performé dans un passé plus ou moins proche, généralement 1 an et, à l’inverse, vendre  celles qui ont sous-performé en comparaison à un ensemble d’actions.

Facteur volatilité

  • La volatilité est une mesure importante du risque. Elle est calculée à partir de l’écart-type des rendements des actions en portefeuille. Plus le rendement espéré d’un portefeuille est important, plus le risque qui en découle, matérialisé par la volatilité, sera important. La prime de volatilité provient par conséquent de l’achat des actions à plus faible volatilité et la vente des actions à forte volatilité.

Facteur taille

  • Historiquement, les petites capitalisations surperforment les grandes capitalisations puisque les premières peuvent être comparées à des valeurs de croissance tandis que les secondes à des valeurs de rendement. L’achat des petites capitalisations couplé à la vente des grandes capitalisations perme
  • t par conséquent d’obtenir une prime qui est appelée prime de taille.

La liste des facteurs présentés précédemment est une liste non-exhaustive. Il existe d’autres facteurs qui ne seront pas abordés dans cette article tels qu’entres autres les facteurs de croissance, de qualité et de dividende.

Une stratégie d’arbitrage factoriel

Revue banque
Source : Revue Banque, Septembre 2016

Une fois les stratégies mises en place, le rôle de l’asset manager (AM) est de déterminer quels sont les actions à vendre ou à acheter. Dans le cas du facteur value, l’AM doit déterminer quels sont les actifs sous-évalués (respectivement surévalués) qu’il achètera (vendra).

En règle générale, l’AM effectue un classement des actifs présents dans un certain univers (Figure3). Prenons l’exemple d’un fond ayant pour benchmark le CAC40, l’univers représentera l’ensemble des 40 actions composant l’indice français. Le gérant choisira ensuite les N valeurs les mieux classées et les N valeurs les moins bien classées afin de constituer son portefeuille. Le choix du N varie en fonction des fonds prenant en compte le risque auquel ceux-ci acceptent de s’exposer.

Figure 3 : Constitution d’un portefeuille

Constitution d’un portefeuille
Source : Revue Banque, Septembre 2016

Et le risque me diriez-vous?

Le risque d’une stratégie smart Béta peut être mesuré à l’aide de 3 indicateurs :

  • Exposition aux facteurs des titres
  • Covariances entre les facteurs
  • Covariances entre les titres

Il s’agit finalement de calculer la variance du portefeuille comme pour une gestion active traditionnelle sauf que les facteurs d’expositions sont désormais pris en comptes.

Soit :

X  =

F=

Covariance

La matrice de variance covariance des rendements des facteurs.

Variance du portefeuille :

Variance de portefeuille

Avec

vecteur des poids des N actifs

Δ  = vecteur des risques spécifiques des actifs

L’investissement factoriel, un investissement « smart »

Les points forts du « smart beta » sont donc multiples. Malgré un risque qui persiste et qui ne disparaitra jamais en intégralité, il peut être atténué. La stratégie d’arbitrage des portefeuilles long/short permet de se couvrir ou du moins d’atténuer le risque de perte en cas de forte volatilité ou encore de crise. Historiquement, les fonds dont la stratégie est l’investissement factoriel tendent à traverser les crises avec des pertes moins conséquentes que pour des fonds gérer « traditionnellement ».

Reste à savoir si, comme beaucoup de stratégies d’investissement, le « smart beta » ne restera qu’une mode temporaire ou si celle-ci persistera dans le temps.[/vc_column_text][/vc_column][/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_tta_accordion style=”modern” active_section=””][vc_tta_section title=”Bibliographie” tab_id=”1512174350027-4dd69ed5-50c3″][vc_column_text]

  • « Les écueils des méthodes d’allocation d’actifs traditionnelles », Revue Banque, Juin 2016
  • « La systématisation progressive de l’alpha des gérants », Revue Banque, Juillet 2016
  • « L’espoir de la diversification effective par les primes de style académiques », Revue Banque, Septembre 2016
  • « La corrélation entre les facteurs au centre du jeu », Revue Banque, Octobre 2016
  • « Pour une mise en œuvre robuste des stratégies d’investissement factoriel », Revue Banque, Décembre 2016
  • « L’investissement factoriel », Vanguard, Avril 2015

[/vc_column_text][/vc_tta_section][/vc_tta_accordion][/vc_column][/vc_row]


BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESDecember 5, 2017
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6min1090

Mauritius

Mauritius, an island of over 1.2 million population situated in the Indian Ocean is developing as one of the emerging markets in the African region. The financial sector started to boom after considerable foreign direct investments from offshore companies and international banks which have successfully established themselves on the isle during the past years. The numerous foreign relationships that Mauritius shares at the international level have now become paramount for its growing economy. These international relations emerge from Mauritius’s rich heritage in terms of culture, diversity of ethnicities and professional skilled citizens. Mauritius has attracted many entities from mainly India and Africa due to its low tax liability. These companies have been operating profitably during the past decades creating more opportunities for the different sectors of the economy and its citizens.

Mauritius

Mauritius has developed from a low-income, agriculturally based economy to a middle-income diversified economy with growing industrial, financial, and tourist sectors. The first pillar of the Mauritian economy is the tourism industry which remains a significant source for its foreign revenues via spending on goods and services.

Many factors contribute to the rapid expansion of the Mauritian economy. On the far end of the spectrum it can be observed that the services industry form nearly to 73.2 % of the economy and agriculture and manufacturing contribute together to less than 30% of the economy.

 

        The table below displays the trends of the major macro economic factors for years 2014 – 2017

Mauritius

The GDP growth of Mauritius has been growing steadily since the past four years and an average growth per year over the recent years was noted to be 3.2 %. The GDP growth accounts mainly from the agricultural, financial and services sectors.  Alongside the tourism industry, the offshore companies and banks forming part of the financial sector of the island have contributed enormously to its goodwill at the international level. Sugarcane exportation was previously the first pillar of the Mauritian economy and most of its cultivation was for exportation to foreign countries. Nevertheless, after the price of sugar fell down and less profit were made on sugar exportation and as a result the tourism industry became the main economic activity of the country. Trade and the manufacturing sectors form less than 40% of the economic activities of Mauritius although many European brands such as Mango, Etam and much more are manufactured locally at low labor costs. The textile industry has expanded under Africa Growth and Opportunity Act which brings much profitability for the players in this field. The Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) which plays a large role in the economic health of Mauritius comprises mainly of the services sector (financial and non-financial services), fuel, telecommunications, cement and electrical equipments.

Mauritius is world renowned for its beaches, reefs and lagoons. Since decades tourists from all over the world have been visiting this small nation and contributing largely in its steady and sustainable growth. As the literacy rate increased over the years and the Information Technology sector has been highly structured more jobs have become accessible for the inhabitants. Consequently, Mauritius has since become a very attractive destination for Foreign Direct Investments due to its tax-haven benefits, skilled labor force and much-improved infrastructure. Today Mauritius is considered to be politically, economically and financial stable country in other words referred to a tiny island with a booming economy. However, in the long run will Mauritius continue to be an attractive destination for investors and provide them low tax and cuts when various countries in Africa such as Kenya, Ghana, Mozambique and Botswana are also coming out as gigantic emerging markets?

 

References

Chancery Group Emerging Market Africa Global Finance Magazine Financial Times


BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESDecember 2, 2017
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9min840

The founder of lean approach was, Taiichi Ohno, an executive member of Toyota during the 50’s. He wanted to focus on production processes, wastes, value streams and the Kaizen to improve Toyota’s efficiency and be more competitive on the automotive market.

This is the reason why, today, Lean manufacturing is often called “Toyota Production System” and this model is analysed by many companies in order to improve their activities.

In 50 years, Toyota became leader of a highly competitive market being in average 4 times more productive and 2 times more profitable than other competitors. These results are mainly due to Lean management and the way Toyota is organized, consequently we will look at how can we implement this model in financial services in order to reduce wastes and produce a more profitable and qualitative service.

Indeed, financial services are following very strict procedures mainly because of legal requirements and these procedures can be improve using lean management technics. As we discussed in the introduction, effects of lean has been demonstrated in the automotive sector which is organised by a succession of stages aiming to produce a final product.

The way Financial services are operating today, using sets of procedures explaining steps by steps what to do to accomplish a specific task, lead us to the conclusion that lean management technics used in manufacturing industry can be adapted to financial activities.

Knowing that lean management can be adapted to financial company, the most difficult point is now to look at how can these technics be implemented.

5 steps to Implement a lean strategy

A first step that company usually follow is to choose one or several pilot sites where they will test and generate their news technics and ideas on current practices. This step should last 1 or 2 years in order to analyse effects of this new organisation on company’s activities and observe points that need to be improved.

Step 1: Define a target

Define several objectives corresponding to key deadlines which could be represented in term of value, time, customer satisfaction or any kind of measurable data.

Step 2: Map

This step is important because we will define every action needed to create value in the activity such as the different step of a car production.  We will create a map or a timeline going form the current state to the future state. This timeline or map is commonly called “value stream”. Then we will identify and categorize waste in the Current State, and eliminate them. This step will end up with a process where only “useful” steps are present.

Step 3: Flow

We will organise the value stream as a flow of step that we perform one after another. Then we will turn the flow to a product or service-focussed organization in order to put the service’s quality and performance as main point in the company. This will directly impact the production’s duration or services performance.

Step 4: Pull

This steps is mainly use for production of finished good as we will let the customer pull products as needed and so eliminate the need for sales forecast. In a services industry, such as finance, we will highlight which steps are needed by customers and focus on these ones. Consequently, it will remain only useful task and services in the company’s process as both customers and organisations will express what do they expect from each other.

Step 5: Perfection

This steps is not the end of lean implementation process because we can always improve a service or a production. We will restart at step 1 and go through every step again and again in order to keep only essential parts of the value stream.

What impact can we expect on Financial activities?

We can often hear people saying that lean management is only efficient in manufacturing activities because they are producing the same kind of product several times over long periods and that we can easily standardize this flow of production.

When we talk about implementing lean in industry of services, main part of people say that lean management is not applicable because tasks are too complicated.

When we step back and reflect about it, we observe that services are composed of long processes which could be sometimes more complex than those of manufacturing industries because they need to be specific to each client. The important thing to notice is that as long as we have processes to improve, lean management will be useful for the company. Hence, having processes in the financial industry makes the lean management implementable.

A difficult point will be now to convince people to get involve in a such organisation as lean strategy usually takes place on the long term and result are difficult to see on the sort term.

Many people will ask you the following questions: “Does this strategy will positively impact the financial turnover of the company? Will we see a real improvement on a financial point of view?”

A simple answer to this question is to make a quick exercise.

Find two teams having similar missions such as entering consumer transaction. We will give to each member post-it and ask them to detail how they process step by step to accomplish the task. This will create a map of the employee activity and way of working. At the end, we will put on a wall every map coming from each employee and will see which step are the most listed. This will give us the most important part to keep in the process and we will be able to look at the remaining others and see if it is possible to remove them.

After this exercise, we can now prove that on a middle to long term strategy, after some change in team’s organizations, the company will be able to perform a quicker and more qualitative service to its customer. The financial result of this strategy will be the reduction of costs, (less time to perform a task) and also an increase of the company’s turnover because employees will be able to perform more tasks in a same period of time compare than before thanks to this new organisation.

Lean is about standardizing processes to make problems visible and developing your employees’ critical thinking ability so that they can solve those problems and improve work processes. In these conditions, financial industry can take advantage of these methods and it’s sure that some of them have already started to use them in their daily activities.

 

References

Le Lean Manufacturing  Institut Lean France  Lean Industry Week


BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESNovember 8, 2017
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19min1990
Table des matières
  1. Définition
  2. Chiffre clés du secteur
  3. Types d’emballage
  4. Potentiel de croissance
  5. Evolution potentiel du marché de l’emballage
  6. Chaine de fonctionnement
  7. Chaine de production

Définition

La filière de l’emballage et du conditionnement est un maillon clé de la chaîne de fabrication. Elle permet de relier la matière première au produit fini avant d’être distribuée aux consommateurs.
En effet, l’article R 543-43 du code de l’environnement définit l’emballage comme « tout objet […] destiné à contenir et à protéger des marchandises, à permettre leur manutention et leur acheminement, du producteur au consommateur ou à l’utilisateur, et à assurer leur présentation ».
L’ensacheuse et la thermo formeuse automatique permettent par exemple le conditionnement de produits alimentaires, liquides notamment.

Chiffre clés du secteur

Le marché mondial de l’emballage est chiffré à 812 milliards US$ 5 en 2014 selon un taux de croissance annuel moyen (TCAM) de 4,2% depuis 2010. Estimé en 2015 à 839 milliards US$, il atteindrait 998 milliards US$ en 2020 avec TCAM de 5% pour parvenir à 1 100 milliards US$ en 2024. Avec une population mondiale de 7,35 milliards d’humains en 2015 selon l’ONU : ce sont 114 US$ d’emballages consommés par individu/par an dans le monde. Moyenne mathématique qui cache tant de disparités ! Les économies les plus développées sont les plus productrices et les plus consommatrices d’emballages. Ces marchés matures subissent d’importantes modifications dans la chaine de valeur de l’emballage sous l’impulsion des changements démographiques, environnementaux et de la « nouvelle économie ». Les économies émergentes créent les nouvelles opportunités, satisfaisant ainsi les attentes de leurs populations. Parmi les plus toniques: le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique du Nord (MENA) verront leur marché de l’emballage croître de 35,4 milliards US$ en 2014 à 45,2 milliards $ en 2019 avec un TCAM de 5%, plus élevé que celui du marché mondial de l’emballage.

Le marché de l’emballage en France s’élève à 23 MILLIARDS D’EUROS. Il représente le 8ème secteur industriel en France, avec 1500 entreprises et plus de 115000 salariés.

La France est le 3ème exportateur mondial.

Types d’emballage

Partagé entre cinq grandes familles de matériaux :

  • Plastiques,
  • Papier-carton,
  • Verre,
  • Métal,
  • Bois (le textile restant marginal)

Le marché mondial des emballages profitent depuis plusieurs années aux matières plastiques rigides et aux matériaux souples/flexibles.

Source : ALL4PACK d’après estimations

En unités d’emballage, les principaux matériaux d’emballage utilisés dans le monde sont également les matériaux souples (36%), les papiers et cartons (24%) et les matières plastiques rigides (20%). Les emballages les plus utilisés étant les sacs et sachets (875,59 milliards d’unités), les bouteilles (810,32 milliards) et les boîtes (412,95 milliards).

En France, le Plastique représente 33%, tandis que le Papier/Carton 31%, le Métal 14%, le Verre14% et enfin le bois qui ferme la marche avec 8%.

Potentiel de croissance

Nous essayerons de vous présenter l’évolution des différents types d’emballage dans les prochaines années.

1-     Les plastiques rigides enregistrent le plus fort taux de croissance

Plasriques
Emballages en plastique

Les emballages en plastique rigide devraient poursuivre leur croissance avec un TCAM de 4,4% jusqu’en 2020 à 222,5 milliards US$ 8 . Le PET reste leader grâce à sa légèreté qui réduit les coûts et empreinte carbone lors des transports. Sa consommation mondiale atteindrait 21,1 millions de tonnes en 2021 grâce à des évolutions technologiques qui permettent, en autres, le conditionnement du lait et le remplissage à chaud de sauces et préparations culinaires. L’Afrique, le Moyen-Orient et l’Asie seront les plus forts consommateurs d’emballages en plastique rigide dans les cinq prochaines années. A l’inverse, sur les marchés comme l’Australie, la demande des boissons gazeuses, eau et produits alimentaires semble saturée et s’oriente vers des emballages en plastique souple comme nouvelles sources de croissance.

2-     Une croissance ralentie pour les matériaux flexibles/souples

La demande en emballages flexibles (papier, plastiques, matériaux complexes /multicouches) s’est fortement développée dans la dernière décennie à 210 milliards US$ en 2015. Des sauts technologiques et le macro-environnement ont transformé cet emballage perçu au départ comme un « low cost » en un « must have » de qualité pour une multitude d’applications. Ce marché devrait prospérer dans les cinq années à venir à 3,4% l’an pour atteindre 248 milliards US$ 9 en 2020. L’Asie restera le marché le plus important, passant de 42% de part de marché en 2015 à près de 45% en 2020, devant l’Europe de l’Est. L’alimentaire est le 1er secteur client avec 70% de la consommation des emballages flexibles à 18,8 millions de tonnes en 2015. L’amélioration des propriétés barrières des matériaux flexibles à épaisseur réduite reste porteuse d’avenir. De même ; les équipements de remplissage à grande vitesse, qui maintiennent les emballages par le col, favorisent la pénétration des emballages flexibles sur le marché des boissons.

3-     L’emballage carton boosté par le commerce électronique

Les emballages métalliques suivent l’évolution du marché mondial de l’emballage. Estimé à 102,9 milliards US$ 11 en 2015, le marché global atteindrait 106,1 milliards $ en 2016 (+3,1%) et 132,1 milliards $ en 2021 (+4,5% l’an). La demande provient d’Asie, tirée par la Chine, et favorise en particulier les aérosols pour produits d’hygiène corporelle, cosmétiques, et produits d’entretien. Sur les marchés d’Europe Occidentale et d’Amérique du Nord, les conserves alimentaires sont en revanche impactées par la concurrence des emballages flexibles et par l’attente de leurs consommateurs pour des fruits et légumes frais. En revanche, les boites boisson, qui représentent 65% du marché de l‘emballage métallique, continuent de progresser sous l’impulsion des brasseries et microbrasseries qui rivalisent d’imagination avec des design et formats spécifiques.

4-     Stabilité pour les emballages en métal

L’emballage métallique suit les tendances du marché mondial de l’emballage. Estimé à USD102,9 milliards en 2015, le marché mondial devrait atteindre USD106,1 milliards en 2016 (+3,1%) et USD132,1 milliards en 2021 (+ 4,5% par an).

La demande provient d’Asie, conduite par la Chine, et se concentre en particulier sur les aérosols pour les produits d’hygiène personnelle, les produits cosmétiques et les produits de nettoyage. Sur les marchés de l’Europe de l’Ouest et de l’Amérique du Nord, les aliments en conserve sont touchés par la concurrence des emballages souples et par la demande des consommateurs de fruits et légumes frais.

Cependant, les boîtes de boissons, qui représentent 65% du marché des emballages métalliques, continuent de progresser, dirigées par les brasseries et les micro-brasseries qui rivalisent entre elles sur la conception et les formats spéciaux.

5-     Le luxe : Segment privilégié de l’emballage en verre

L’emballage en verre enregistrerait le plus faible taux de croissance à perspective 2020 à 63,87 milliards US$. Essentiellement dédié aux boissons et à la parfumerie, il est devenu symbole du luxe, et parfois de la transgression, avec des créations haut de gamme et sophistiquées. Ainsi, le Champagne multiplie les séries limitées, les vins s’adressent aux femmes avec des couleurs acidulées, les bières utilisent des emballages premiums avec des étiquettes PSL 12 pour un look «sans étiquette». Verre dépoli, effets tactiles et formes uniques dynamisent ce matériau.

6-     Les emballages en bois

Principalement les palettes et cagettes, concernent essentiellement l’emballage industriel. Suivant la croissance de l’industrie mondiale de la logistique, la production de palettes a atteint 73,6 millions de palettes Euro (+11% par rapport à 2014) sachant que plus de 91% de ces palettes sont en bois.

Evolution potentiel du marché de l’emballage

Canadean’s estime le marché mondial des emballages à 3 576 milliards d’unités en 2015 et à 4 029 milliards d’unités d’emballages en 2018 (soit +12%), tandis qu’Euromonitor International l’estime à 4 300 milliards d’unités en 2015 dont 73% destinées aux denrées alimentaire et boissons. Compte tenu de la demande des économies en développement, les secteurs de la beauté et de l’hygiène enregistreront les plus fort taux de croissance à perspective 2019, sans oublier l’électronique grand public, les aliments pour animaux de compagnie, les produits pour la maison et le jardin.

Source: Euromonitor International

Chaine de fonctionnement

Normalement, les petites ou moyennes entreprises produisent elles même parce que le nombre des commandes n’excède pas leur capacité de production. Il y a que les grandes entreprises qui ont besoin de sous-traitant parce que leur commande est en grande quantité (des millions produits par commande). Alors ils doivent demander les sous-traitants en Asie comme en Chine ou au Vietnam pour augmenter la productivité. Par ailleurs, le cout de production en Asie est fortement moins cher qu’en Europe.

Chaine de production

Comme il y a beaucoup de type de sacs en plastique, alors nous vous présentons un type de sac standard.

Etape 1 : L’ extruction

Le principe de l’ extruction est de faire fondre et de compresser les billes de matières plastique dasn une vis sans fin, puis de constituer une gaine par gonflage.Livrason

Etape 2 : L’impression

Le principe de l’ impression en flexographie est d’utiliser un « cliché » , comme un tampon encreur pour fixer l’ encre sur la matière.


Etape 3 : Le façonnage

Le façonnage permet de donner au film plastique ses caractéristiques, telles que les soufflets ou les poignées, et d’ assurer la découpe des futurs sacs plastiques

Tab1. Le réseau de contact dans le secteur
EntreprisePaysContact
AMCORSUISSEAmcor
ALPHA-WERKEAutricheAlpha
COVERIS HOLDINGETATS-UNISCoveris
SEALED AIR CORPORATIONETATS-UNISSealed
RPC GROUPUkRPC
MONDI GROUPUkMondi

 


BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESOctober 26, 2017
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2min870

Qu’est-ce que c’est le Participatory Notes ?

P-Notes (Participatory Notes) est un instrument financier dérivés émise par les organisations d’investissement comme les fonds d’investissement dans les marchés boursier émergentes pour les investisseurs étrangers.

Afin de commencer à émettre des P-Notes, les organisations d’investissement (généralement des grandes banques d’investissement de bonne réputation et prestige comme la Deutsche Bank) accumulent un porte- feuille et à partir de ce portefeuille, ils vont émettre des P-Notes aux investisseurs étrangers qui veulent investir aux produits financiers que le portefeuille possède. Alors, les investisseurs étrangers sont des propriétaires des P- Notes et ils ont droit de bénéficier des dividendes et des intérêts à partir des produits dans le portefeuille. Au cas où les propriétaires de P-Notes ont envie de retirer leur capital, l’organisation qui émis les P-Notes engage de rembourser le capital de l’investisseur par rapport le cours d’échange de P-Notes.

Par ailleurs, P-Notes est également un instrument de paiement comme les titres de créances négociables et les bons de trésor.

Les caractéristiques du cash- flow de Participatory Notes

L’investissement au P-Notes, les participants ne doivent pas d’enregistrer aux institutions de réglementation et de passer par les procédures administratives dans telles pays.

Alors que le flux de trésorerie de P-Notes peut changer rapidement et avoir souvent une caractéristique de spéculation. Par ailleurs, il y a des difficultés de déterminer les véritables propriétaires de ce flux de trésorerie alors qu’on a un doute de « blanchiment d’argent » grâce à des investissements dans P-Notes.


BONDS & SHARESBONDS & SHARESOctober 25, 2017
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3min470

A côté de ces risques extrême les fondamentaux se renforcent eux aussi : l’investissement repart, les perspectives de profits s’améliorent, les crédits bancaires sont en forte hausse… La situation économique de la zone Euro s’éclaircit et un regain de confiance s’opère chez les investisseurs. Sur le premier trimestre 2017, les marchés d’actions européens ont poursuivi leur tendance haussière initiée au début du second trimestre 2016. Les révisions de bénéfices marquent une inflexion positive en Europe depuis six mois. Le consensus prévoit une hausse des résultats de 14.2% en 2017 pour l’ensemble du marché européen et une poursuite de cette tendance en 2018 avec une anticipation de hausse de 9.9%. Dans ce contexte, la dynamique est donnée :

Fabrice Masson, Directeur de la Gestion Actions et Convertibles à BFT Investment Managers, maintient sa préférence pour les marchés européens.

“Au niveau de la zone euro, nous avons renforcé nos positions sur l’Allemagne et les Pays-Bas”

Cependant la réalité est plus nuancée, les chiffres anticipés des performances économiques tardent à se vérifier. La croissance peine à décoller : 1,70 % en Europe en 2016 et 1,80 à 2% en 2017. Aux Etats-Unis, après un petit 1,60% en 2016, une grande incertitude pèse sur 2017. De plus les ménages Américains, après la crise des subprimes, orientent vers l’épargne leurs hausse de revenus. De même en Chine où la croissance de l’activité industrielle peine à se maintenir. De plus ce pays se tourne sur lui-même en privilégiant maintenant la consommation interne. Enfin les difficultés de ces deux pays (Les Etats-Unis et la Chine) entrainent avec eux les pays émergents et ralentit leurs dynamismes économiques. Leurs situations pourraient se détériorer encore avec une éventuelle baisse sur les dollars destinés à stimuler les exportations Américaines pénalisé par un dollar “clairement trop cher” selon Daniel Gérino, Directeur de la Gestion et Président de Carton Sélection. La prudence reste donc de mise sur les marchés actions et la question est de savoir si l’Europe pourra se soustraire de sa dépendance aux marchés Américains.

Les références  Next Finance 1  Next Finance 2  Next Finance 3



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